Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Market Finally Reverses - After Being Extended By Too Many Standard Deviations


In my last post I said to sell into strength. Since then, Apple, Google and CREE have hit the ball out of the ball park and the Dow has gone through 10,000. Now it appears that the market has finally hit the wall and is reversing. Other than the above three stocks, many stocks are starting to correct - see IBM below left.

I am therefore sticking to my guns. I'm not saying that the ballgame is over. I am saying that by any technical barometer stocks are extended and need to pull back and consolidate.

The question is not "do I want to buy AAPL?" I do want to own AAPL. The real question is "do I want to own AAPL right now?"

As a short term trader I might play chicken with the momentum for some quick in out trades. As an investor or swing trader I must wait for the right entry point and the air is getting very thin up here. As per IBD, more stocks are extended above their moving averages (Pick your favorite one) than is healthy. One can not lose money by staying on the sidelines waiting for the right opportunity. It is better to be safe and wait for the fat pitch than get caught up chasing extended stocks in a speculative frenzy. Hence, I am making my list and waiting to see how things work out during a pullback. the key right now is to see how the charts of great stocks hold up.
Eventually the dust will settle and there will be a better buying point. From here on in one has to judiciously pick the right buying points.



0 comments:

Google Search